MGT581 Forecasting & Risk Assessment Practice (8)

CSU Discipline Area: Management (MANAG)

Duration: One session

Abstract:

The student will study in depth various forecasting and risk assessment techniques drawn from the behavioural, social, financial and operations research disciplines. The teaching strategy is designed to guide the student towards the development of an inquiring, critical approach to the definition of current and potential business problems; the generation of appropriate solutions; and the differential risks attached to feasible solutions. The subject has been designed to provide students with the tools needed in the study and monitoring of environmental changes; the assessment of the risks which are presented by these changes; and in the utilisation of the results obtained in organisational planning processes.

+ Subject Availability Modes and Locations

Session 1
Distance	Aust Graduate Mgt Consorti
Session 2
Distance	Aust Graduate Mgt Consorti
Session 3
Distance	Aust Graduate Mgt Consorti

Continuing students should consult the SAL for current offering details: MGT581

Where differences exist between the Handbook and the SAL, the SAL should be taken as containing the correct subject offering details.

Enrolment restrictions:

Available only for Australian Graduate Management Consortium (AGMC) students.

Objectives:

Upon successful completion of this subject, students should:

be able to use qualitative and quantitative forecasting techniques concerned with the social, technological, economic, market, and financial internal and external environments of management;
be able to distinguish between continuous and discontinuous futures and select appropriate forecasting techniques to fit the various categories of uncertainty;
be able to demonstrate an understanding of the limitations of various forecasting techniques and differentiate between operational and strategic forecasting situations;
be able to use risk assessment techniques drawn from financial, operations research, and from behavioural/social analysis;
be able to apply a variety of risk assessment techniques to selected practical problems;
be able to distinguish between the different risk perspectives adopted by proponents of diverse business study disciplines and be able to match risk assessment techniques to specified problems.

Syllabus:

The subject will cover the following topics:

- Qualitative forecasting techniques.
- Environmental trend analysis.
- Quantitative forecasting techniques.
- Risk assessment techniques and research methods.
- Use of long and short range economic forecasts.
- Scenario construction.
- Perceptions of risks.
- Price leader and price follower risks. Tandem and parallel forecasting. Forecasting method selection.
- Insurable risks - insure or self-insure?
- Average equity risks and some risk paradoxes.
- Diversification.
- Disaggregating risks: products and markets; the supply chain; make or buy decisions.

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